More than four million residents of the United States, especially Latinos and African-Americans, are at risk of being left out of the 2020 census due to the controversies surrounding it, including the question about citizenship, says a study released by the Urban Institute on Tuesday. .
President Donald Trump wants to include in the forms the question “Is this person a citizen of the United States?”, Something that generates suspicion in immigrant homes and could cause a lower participation in the census for fear of reprisals in immigration matters, points out The report.
According to the independent Urban Institute, for this and other obstacles, in its “higher risk” forecast, some 2.2 million Latinos (3.57% of the total) could be left out of the count, while risk estimates average point to 2.84% and low indicate 2.01%, or 1.2 million residents.
Along with Hispanics, more than 1.7 million African Americans (3.68% of the total) may not be counted, same situation faced by more than 100,000 natives (2.12%) and 305,000 Asians (1.36%), while the risk is significantly reduced in the case of whites, which is 67,000 people or 0.03% of this population.
The results of a wrong census can directly affect populations that are usually more difficult to count, the researcher of the institute, Diana Elliott, warns in the presentation of the projections.
Particularly because of the consequences it would have on the lack of adequate calculations of the funds needed for children’s programs, or even infrastructure, he adds.
The government has denied accusations that the question is an undercover plan to increase the electoral power of the Republican Party.
The alleged conspiracy, the Administration alleges in a letter sent to District Judge Jesse Furman, who blocked the inclusion of the question in the census in January, would be a last-minute campaign to influence the Supreme Court, which must decide at the end of this month about your appeal.
The groups that filed the lawsuit argue that the government has concealed the fact that the question was the idea of ​​a Republican specialist in the design of electoral districts, arguing that it would be a “clear disadvantage for the Democrats and advantageous for the Republicans and non-Hispanic whites. “
According to the researchers of the Urban Institute, no matter what the Supreme Court ruling, the controversy over the question has created a prejudicial effect on participation in the census among Latinos and pro-immigrant groups.
This factor was included in the projections as a “high risk” scenario.
The institute also identifies as obstacles the new methods proposed for carrying out the census, which have not been evaluated correctly and could be another risk for the accuracy of the result.
These methods include authorization to fill out forms online, or the use of information held by the Government to complete questionnaires that are not answered by households.
It also points out the lack of funds in recent years that has forced the Census Bureau to cancel the field tests for the 2020 census, including those designed for rural areas and where Spanish is spoken.
“The new additions not only have not been adequately tested, but the evidence suggests that they will disproportionately improve access to those that are already easy to census, and will increase the obstacles to those that are difficult to count,” the report says.
According to the analysis, the states with more chances of its inhabitants not being correctly counted are California, Texas and Nevada.
A census where the count is greater or less than the actual population has repercussions on political representation and the allocation of federal resources, warns the center.
The new numbers on the population of the country will determine how many votes each state obtains in the Electoral College that elects the president, or how 880,000 million dollars are distributed annually in federal resources for schools, roads and other public services. (EFEUSA) .-
