Juan Guaidó “is not going to be a 30-day president” in the case of a transition scenario in Venezuela, forecasted the expert Luis Vicente León, who warned that this country faces, due to the sanctions imposed by Washington, an “embargo” de facto “that affects your productivity.
In an interview with Efe, the president of the Venezuelan pollster Datanalisis explained that in the midst of a “conflict of powers” like the one that Venezuela is going through, “the constitutional and legal part goes practically to the background.”
“This will be resolved politically, it will not be resolved either legally or constitutionally, but politically and politics is the science of negotiation,” he added.
Guaidó, head of the National Assembly (AN, Parliament), with an opposition majority, was proclaimed interim president of Venezuela on January 23, invoking articles 233 and 333 of the Constitution.
Article 233 provides that the head of the National Assembly will be in charge of the Presidency in case of absolute absence of the agent and that a new universal, direct and secret election will be held in “the next thirty consecutive days”.
“It is very unlikely that you have an election in 30 days.
Venezuela does not have institutions and they have to rescue, restore institutions, get confidence in those institutions, “added Leon, who considered it unfeasible” to go to an electoral process under the current conditions. “
“Therefore, Guaidó is not going to be a president of 30 days, if he were, he would be a president of more time,” he said.
The professor also pointed out that in the current situation in Venezuela it is not possible to take “for granted that this is over and that Guaidó will be able to take control of Venezuelan territory shortly and be the interim president to call elections or whatever” .
“The first uncertainty is about how the Venezuelan military sector behaves, because you can have a great crisis,” said Leon, who warned that the situation may be extended as in the cases of Cuba, Iran, Syria, Zimbabwe or Korea. North if the military sector decides to keep aligned with Maduro and also opts to repress.
In the background, Leon saw it necessary to analyze what happens with the strategy of the international community and, in particular, that of the United States, which he considered “very determinant in the Venezuelan future” that, he foresaw, oscillates between negotiation or hard exit.
“There is a very strong commitment from (Donald) Trump that can make even politically indispensable progress, which then takes us to other more complex scenarios,” said this analyst, for whom a tough response “is a perfectly viable scenario that is on the table”.
Another aspect on which León drew attention was the decision of the Treasury Department to block all the assets under the jurisdiction of the country of the state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).
“Unfortunately at this moment the Venezuelan economy enters a phase of destruction and collapse, we are in a de facto embargo that dramatically affects the productive capacity,” observed Leon, who anticipated that it is inevitable to see “an exponential and very rapid deterioration” .
In his opinion, as soon as “later this month”, the “terribly complex” effects on the economy will be felt.
“If the problem is not solved quickly, the cost to the population will be very important, it will be brutal,” said the expert, who said that the impact “can also weaken the actors that provoke it.”
León estimated that the sanctions prevent Venezuela from receiving 11,000 million dollars a year from the United States, which represents “the total of imports” of the oil country last year. (EFEUSA) .-