The commercial, migratory and security tensions will continue between Mexico and the United States as President Donald Trump has two aces up his sleeve to continue the discussion, drug trafficking and the construction of the wall, a specialist in border issues.
Under this perspective, the researcher of the Department of Public Administration Studies of the College of the Northern Frontier (Colef) José María Ramos, considered that with the migratory agreement reached by the Governments of both countries 10 days ago, he has just started a new stage in the bilateral relationship
“The tensions are going to continue above all because three major issues remain: the migratory agreement whereby Mexico will strengthen its security in the southern border, drug trafficking and the border wall,” Ramos said.
On the agreement, the academician also said that the problem is that “it is not clear (within 45 days) what will be the number of detained migrants that the US will accept as appropriate.”
After the agreement and already in Mexico, Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard explained in Mexico City that they did not agree with the US government “a precise figure in the decrease of the migratory flow because the issue is that there is a reduction every month; figure because it would be counterproductive. “
He trusted that this regulation will be given almost automatically because it will increase security on the southern border where they will deploy, in various stages, about 6,000 agents of the newly created National Guard.
According to figures from the US immigration authorities so far this year, about 300,000 migrants have crossed the border irregularly and only in May detained some 144,000 migrants.
For Ramos another fundamental issue “that is going to leave sooner or later” to collation is the fight against drug trafficking because Trump himself has raised it “is part of his institutional argument of national emergency.”
He recalled that on different occasions, the US president has said that the border with Mexico “is trapped by networks of drug traffickers and networks of people linked to human trafficking or trafficking to the United States.”
While the third issue that will reappear at some point in the bilateral relationship will be the border wall because Trump “poses it as the alternative to reduce drug trafficking like that of people.”
Ramos considered that although the migratory agreement “reduces tension a little”, and that means that there are certain advances in cooperation and collaboration, “there are other more controversial ones that sooner or later will jump and will generate a tension in the Mexico-United States relationship “.
He pointed out that Trump “has very clear” what his proposals or decisions are, that is why he linked migration issues with trade and tariff issues, and recalled that just over a month ago he did it when he delayed commercial traffic from Mexico to the United States.
“On that occasion his approach was: if you do not strengthen your surveillance on the southern border, I’m going to restrict the passage of vehicles with goods to my country,” and although the measure was not lasting, it was implemented.
The specialist considered as good the 45-day period for Mexico to implement its strategy to reduce the migratory flow.
“Especially since there are already certain advances in the area and we must remember that the infrastructure of border control that exists in Tapachula was given thanks to resources of the Mérida Initiative,” he said.
The Initiative, approved in 2008, is an aid mechanism through which the United States, since that date, has transferred at least 3,000 million dollars in bilateral programs focused on strengthening security in Mexico and Central America, also giving aid to civil organizations.
Ramos said that to the extent that the capacities of local and state police are strengthened, “in this way the participation of these groups that are dedicated to human trafficking decreases.
“So the challenge of the Government of Mexico is to manage, in a responsible manner, issues such as human mobility, human rights, border, national and public security and development in the region, dimensions that are necessary to be managed by the three levels of Government”, finished
The agreement reached on June 7 indicates that Mexico has 45 days to reduce the migratory flow that crosses its territory to the United States or, otherwise, other measures should be considered and the tariff threat could be reactivated.