The OECD forecasts that China will account for 27% of world production by 2030

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    The OECD forecasts that China will account for 27% of world production by 2030 Gantry cranes operate moving containers, in the port of Hong Kong, China. EFE / Archive

     Beijing, – The Chinese economy will continue to grow at a strong pace, despite the signs of slowdown, and will account for 27 percent of global production by 2030, according to the latest country report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD) presented today in Beijing.

    In its 2019 report on China, the international economic body considers that “structural factors” are slowing Chinese growth, but stresses that, compared to international standards, it remains “robust.”
    The OECD forecasts 6.2 percent growth this year and 6 percent by 2020, which would be the slowest progress in almost 30 years.

    In 2018 the economy of the Asian giant – which currently contributes about a quarter of global growth – grew by 6.6 percent and the Chinese government expects it to do between 6 and 6.5 percent this year.

    Even so, the Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will double in 2020 by 2010, and by 2030 China will contribute more to global growth than all the OECD countries as a whole, according to the report.

    “China continues to be the biggest engine of world economic growth and its convergence with advanced economies continues despite the slowdown,” said OECD Deputy Secretary-General Ludger Schuknecht during the presentation of the study in Beijing.
    Among the factors that slow down economic expansion, the text highlights the aging of the population and the decline of people of working age.

    The economy continues to rebalance and the factors that drive growth the most are services and consumption, which in turn benefits from low unemployment and wage growth.
    However, the weakening of the global economy and trade tensions create “uncertainty” about exports, which particularly affects small and medium enterprises.

    “A further escalation of import tariffs facing Chinese exporters will have a more severe impact on business activity, employment and profits,” the text warns.

    The OECD notes that the Chinese government has faced the weakness of exports with stimulus measures such as tax cuts, ease of access to credit or infrastructure investments, but warns that these policies run the risk of increasing the bulky corporate debt , higher than in other large economies.

    “China is still at a crossroads, facing significant internal and external challenges to maintain its strong long-term position, policy must pursue to ensure an economy that works better and provides stable and inclusive growth for all,” Schuknecht summed up. . (EFE).

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