The Republican is opening diplomatic fronts with Denmark, Canada, Mexico and Panama before taking office on January 20.
Donald Trump will return to the White House in the coming days with a foreign policy agenda with similarities to his first term and with the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East as his main challenge, especially after his repeated promise that there will be “no new wars” during his second stay in the White House.
During his election campaign, Trump has maintained a hard line on the same issues that he already addressed in his first term between 2017 and 2021, including the imposition of tariffs on China and criticism of NATO on the need for its member states to increase their funding, to which he has now added demands on Greenland or control of the Panama Canal.
He has also stressed his promise that there will be “no new wars,” including his commitment to reaching an agreement on the war in Ukraine, a conflict that he has asserted can end “in 24 hours” through negotiations between Moscow and kyiv once he takes office on January 20.
The Republican’s first term was already marked by a series of controversial decisions that distanced Washington from established positions, including the withdrawal from various international agreements and the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, something that raised tensions in the Middle East.
Thus, Washington abandoned under Trump’s watch the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Paris Agreement on climate, the Open Skies Treaty and the historic nuclear agreement reached in 2015 with Iran, which led to the imposition of new sanctions on Tehran and led the Central Asian country to violate several of its commitments under the pact since then.
On the other hand, he led diplomatic efforts with traditional rivals of the United States, including several summits with the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, which did not lead to an agreement, and the signing of a peace treaty with the Taliban, who about a year and a half later managed to take power in Afghanistan in the face of the weakening of the security forces in the midst of the withdrawal of international troops.
In addition, his first term was marked by a drastic increase in tensions with China, both due to the imposition of tariffs and the resurgence of the trade war between the two countries, as well as Trump’s constant accusations against Beijing for the coronavirus pandemic, which he referred to as the “Chinese virus.”
Among the most notable successes was also the death of the then leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, in a special forces operation in Syria, a country that will also be the focus of attention in his second term after the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime in the face of an offensive by jihadists and rebels.
‘AMERICA FIRST’ PROMISE
In this context, Trump has remained firm in his commitment to continue with his policy to put ‘America first’, referring to prioritizing Washington’s interests over any other issue, including in foreign policy.
The president-elect therefore has in his sights the fight with China for world hegemony, especially in the commercial field, which is why he has apostatized measures to protect Washington’s interests against what they describe as illegal acts by Beijing, including alleged currency manipulation.
Trump’s position in this regard has numerous ramifications, especially after the United States has increased its focus on the Asia-Pacific region, increasing its support for partners in the area in the face of China’s increasing weight, including a clearer positioning in favor of Taiwan.
In fact, the president already reoriented the national security strategy in his first term to confront China and Russia, while demanding that European partners in NATO increase their investments to reinforce the protection of interests against Beijing and Moscow.
On this occasion, the days prior to his inauguration have been marked by tensions caused by his words on the possible acquisition of Greenland, under Danish sovereignty, and the takeover of the Panama Canal, as well as by having put on the table that Canada becomes one of the states of the United States.
Trump’s statements, who has gone so far as to say that he does not rule out the use of military force in the cases of Greenland and the Panama Canal, have provoked criticism from his allies, who have been caught off guard by these demands at a time when they are focused on the threat posed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In addition, he has already clashed with Mexico by betting on renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the ‘Gulf of America’, which has provoked an ironic response from the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, who has suggested that the United States be called ‘Mexican America’, appealing to a text from the beginning of the 19th century.
Sheinbaum has also warned Trump against the negative consequences of his threat to apply 25% tariffs to Mexican imports and has advocated promoting economic cooperation, while attacking the neighboring country in relation to the strategy in the fight against drug trafficking and migration, among other issues.
Trump has already made migration and border security one of his main battle horses during his first term, in the framework of a speech that has led him to promise to carry out “the largest deportation operation in American history”, similar to the one carried out in 1954 by Dwight Eisenhower, the ‘Wetback’ operation.
THE CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST
The tycoon will take office at a time of special tension in the Middle East, immersed in a conflict after the attacks carried out on October 7, 2023 by Hamas, which led to a large-scale military offensive by Israel against the Gaza Strip, hostilities that spread to other countries in the region and threatened an open war between Israel and Iran.
Trump has recently threatened Hamas with possible consequences if it does not release the hostages it kidnapped more than 15 months ago, amid indirect contacts between Israel and the Islamist group for a ceasefire agreement in the Palestinian enclave that includes the release of these people.
Thus, already in his first term he gave great support to Israel, something reflected in the proposal for the so-called ‘deal of the century’, rejected by the Palestinians, and the mediation in the historic ‘Abraham Accords’, in which the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan normalized relations with Israel.
Along these lines, a hard line of discourse against Iran, which has suffered several setbacks in recent months due to the decapitation of the Hezbollah leadership during the war with Israel and the fall in Syria of the Al Assad regime, one of its main allies.
Added to this are the tensions surrounding the nuclear agreement, damaged by Trump’s decision to withdraw from it, and the memory of the then president’s decision to assassinate in January 2020 the then head of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qasem Soleimani, in a bombing against the airport of the Iraqi capital, Baghdad.
For all these reasons, the international community – the target of Trump’s criticism during his first term, in which he scorned multilateralism – is eagerly awaiting the tycoon’s return to the White House, although it is feared that in this second and final term he will opt for an even tougher line on various issues, pending his announced solution to the war in Ukraine.
