The coronavirus epidemic will have a significant impact on the global economy, which could lose between 77,000 and 347,000 million dollars (68,528 and 308,824 million euros), equivalent to between one and four tenths of world GDP, depending on the speed with which the disease is contained, according to the estimates of the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Thus, according to the intermediate scenario proposed by the institution, which provides for a relief of restrictions and other containment measures from three months after the height of the outbreak in January, the world economy will lose around 156,000 million dollars ( 138,862 million euros), which is equivalent to practically two tenths of the global GDP.
According to the estimates of the ADB, the Chinese economy would assume an impact of 43,890 million dollars (39.061 million euros), 57% of the total, which would be equivalent to the loss of three tenths of GDP, under the most optimistic scenario, while Under the worst case scenario, the impact in China would amount to about 236,793 million dollars (210,732 million euros), 68% of the total, which would mean an adjustment of 1.7 percentage points of GDP.
“There are many uncertainties about Covid-19, including its economic impact,” said ADB chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “This requires the use of multiple scenarios to provide a clearer picture of potential losses. We hope this analysis can help governments while preparing clear and decisive responses to mitigate the human and economic impacts of the outbreak,” he added.
In this regard, the institution has committed to date 2 million dollars to improve the detection and prevention of Covid-19 in China and the Mekong subregion, as well as another 2 million dollars to support the response to the epidemic of developing countries that are members of the entity, in addition to loans amounting to 18.6 million dollars (16.5 million euros) to Jointown Pharmaceutical Group, a Chinese pharmaceutical company based in Wuhan.
ADB has also expressed its willingness to provide additional support to its members in the fight against the adverse effects of coronavirus, including its current lines of loan and emergency financial assistance, investments in the private sector and technical assistance.