Russian Advances on the Battlefield and a Europe Taking a Backseat Worsen Kyiv’s Position
Ukraine marks the fourth anniversary of the large-scale invasion launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin this Tuesday, with a bleak outlook in which Russia is gradually gaining ground in the east of the country due to the lack of military support from the Trump Administration—which has left this responsibility to European partners—and tripartite negotiations with Moscow and Washington that are forcing Kyiv to accept difficult concessions to end the war.
“In the last 12 months, we have only seen a worsening of the situation. We have seen Russian advances on the front lines and a 31% increase in civilian casualties and injuries,” Olena Prokopenko, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund, told Europa Press. Prokopenko notes that 2025 became the deadliest year for Ukraine since 2014, when Russia occupied the Crimean Peninsula and began the war in eastern Ukraine.
Jack Watling, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British think tank focused on security and defense, concurs with this analysis. In a publication, he points out that over the past year, Russian advances have been made possible by the “increasing lethality of Russian fire and the decrease in the number of Ukrainian troops,” which has allowed Russia to “persistently” advance and thus “undermine Ukraine’s defensive positions.”
On the military front, Kyiv has been forced to make technological improvements to Ukrainian units, but “if Russia continues to make steady or even accelerated progress, the Kremlin will maintain the effort,” he argues. “If progress slows significantly, Putin’s perception of his prospects could change as domestic political risks increase,” explains the analyst from the British center.
2026: THE YEAR OF PEACE IN UKRAINE?
Ukraine faces a difficult scenario as it enters the fifth year of conflict. The deteriorating situation on the front lines is compounded by the fact that the Western strategy toward Moscow has “failed spectacularly,” laments Prokopenko, who insists that only “economic and military pressure on Russia can lead to the resolution of this war and to peace.”
“We have seen that Russia has consistently denied the possibility of a ceasefire, even a short-term one,” she adds, emphasizing that Trump’s role is key to understanding the worsening outlook for Ukraine. “He has not been able to convince Russia that a ceasefire is the first step toward lasting peace,” the analyst says of the American leader, noting that Washington is insisting on talks in which the Kremlin has no interest.
“Russia is not only uninterested in serious and genuine talks, but it isn’t even truly at the negotiating table. The rounds we’ve seen were purely technical and are more relevant for a later stage, when a political decision is made; but there is no political decision,” Prokopenko reflects on contacts that, in fact, have given Russia several months to continue with its military plans to “conquer Ukraine as a whole.”
In this regard, the analyst from the German Marshall Fund emphasizes to Europa Press that the United States’ role in the last year “has been very negative” for Kyiv’s interests, both in terms of the cessation of aid on the battlefield and in the political sphere. “Now Putin feels much more inclined not to cooperate in the negotiations,” she warns, insisting that the Russian leader “sees no political consequences and, until recently, saw no economic consequences either” for maintaining his roadmap.
Watling, for his part, reiterates that Moscow maintains a “maximalist stance” regarding its ambitions in the neighboring country. “They believe they can sustain the war until 2027 and perceive the ongoing negotiation process as a vehicle to drive a wedge into the transatlantic alliance,” he warns.
Thus, he believes that while international attention is focused on the negotiations “imposed on the parties” by the United States, Washington’s own rhetoric against Europe and its steps to withdraw from security commitments with allies make the options for Ukraine difficult in any negotiation scenario.
Trump is focusing on Kyiv agreeing to cede territory in the Donbas region in exchange for post-war military support, while simultaneously questioning trust in Washington as a committed actor in European security. “The result is that any collapse of a ceasefire during its implementation would leave Ukraine in a much weaker military position. In short, the US offer is bad,” he points out.
The Russian position, for its part, is that as long as it sees room to gain on the battlefield what is at stake at the negotiating table, “it will keep the negotiations going, but essentially prolong the process without real progress,” Watling warns.
For Prokopenko, accepting these concessions and giving up Donbas “would give Russia a springboard to conquer more Ukrainian territory.” “For Ukraine, it makes no sense, either militarily or politically, to accept these concessions if we don’t see seriousness from the United States,” he argues.
THE DIFFICULT ROLE OF EUROPE
This situation leaves Europe in a difficult position. Despite remaining Ukraine’s only firm military supporter and Kyiv’s main financial backer, the US is systematically relegated to a secondary role in the talks between Ukrainians, Russians, and Americans aimed at ending the conflict.
“Europe is rearming, but this takes time, so many European states believe that a sudden ceasefire on unfavorable terms would expose the continent to serious risks,” warns the RUSI analyst, who maintains that the United States and Europe have diametrically opposed interests in the Ukrainian context.
Washington seeks a swift ceasefire and the restoration of economic cooperation with Russia, while Europe is in the process of strengthening its defenses and maintains a range of sanctions against the Kremlin, with whom it has severed all economic ties.
In his view, the key lies in Russia’s ability to maintain its war machine, while Kyiv is capable of inflicting damage with long-range attacks. “The Russian economy can sustain the war, but as reserves dwindle and debt mounts, it also becomes more vulnerable to shocks. The question is whether Europe is prepared to exert that pressure,” he explains.
Along the same lines, Prokopenko believes the economy is the key issue that could derail Russia’s plans, while Europe could take steps such as supplying long-range weaponry to Kyiv. In this regard, he calls for progress in channeling sanctions toward Ukraine’s defense and economic resilience, to send a “strong political message” from Europe that it has a role to play. “Europe is currently paying for everything related to Ukraine’s defense and granted Ukraine a €90 billion loan in December, so Europe is already footing the bill, and the United States needs to do more,” he states.
