Al-Shara faces a fragile security situation marked by inter-communal clashes and Israeli attacks
Syria marks its first anniversary this Monday since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime due to an offensive by jihadists and rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a period in which the new authorities, headed by Ahmed al-Shara, have achieved various diplomatic advances to improve their image and bring Damascus closer to the international community after years of isolation. However, the situation on the ground remains marked by security and governance challenges, as well as a severe humanitarian crisis.
The collapse of the regime, which began in 1971 after a coup led by Hafez al-Assad, who was succeeded upon his death in 2000 by his son, Bashar al-Assad, was reflected in the latter’s flight to Russia as jihadists and rebels advanced from Idlib (northwest), who between November 27 and December 8 managed to seize the main cities until taking Damascus.
The offensive was launched coinciding with the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah after thirteen months of fighting following the attacks of October 7, 2023, at a time when both the Lebanese group and Al-Assad’s allies such as Iran and Russia were weakened or involved in other conflicts that left the regime unprotected, already greatly weakened after years of a civil war unleashed by the repression of the 2011 protests in the wake of the ‘Arab Spring’. The rise to power of Al Shara, until then the leader of HTS—a group declared a terrorist organization, as was he himself—was followed by efforts to establish new authorities and, especially, to seek international legitimacy for the new government, in which the man formerly known as ‘Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’ maintains considerable influence, despite his public speeches in favor of integration and pluralism.
Since then, he has emphasized the need to promote dialogue and bring Damascus closer to Western powers, a fact exemplified by his speech in September before the United Nations General Assembly and his historic visit in November to the White House, where he met with US President Donald Trump and even posed for photographs playing basketball with high-ranking military officials from the United States, his rivals just months earlier.
Al Shara has achieved partial success in this campaign, including the decision by countries such as the United States, the European Union (EU), and the United Kingdom to lift sanctions against Syria, which he frames as an effort to revive the economy and remove obstacles to receiving aid and funding for reconstruction and revitalization efforts.
However, the authorities have faced numerous problems, particularly due to the lack of progress on the humanitarian front and the serious socioeconomic problems, as well as the feeling of marginalization among members of various minorities—including Kurds, Alawites, and Druze—due to the lack of progress in national dialogue and inter-communal clashes, marked by allegations of atrocities committed by security forces, including the execution of hundreds of civilians. SECURITY PROBLEMS
The capture of Damascus was followed by Al Shara’s decision to dismantle the old security apparatus, in which Alawites held significant power. This is believed to have been a contributing factor in the clashes that occurred in March after an uprising led by a former high-ranking official under Al-Assad, which was crushed by government forces, now composed of former rebels and jihadists who fought against the previous regime. These clashes included abuses and atrocities that led the transitional president to announce investigations, although so far there have been no significant consequences.
Subsequently, clashes between Bedouins and Druze in the Suwayda province (south) led to an intervention by security forces in favor of the former, triggering large-scale fighting that left more than a thousand dead and tens of thousands displaced. This incident was used by Israel as a pretext to launch airstrikes in defense of the Druze, increasing its military influence in the country, where it has established a presence following Al-Assad’s departure.
In fact, the spokesperson for the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Thameen al Keethan, has stated that “while the interim authorities have taken encouraging steps to address past violations (during the Al-Assad regime), these are only the beginning of what needs to be done,” especially in light of allegations of “summary executions, arbitrary killings, and kidnappings, mainly against members of certain communities and individuals accused of ties to the previous government.”
The actions of the authorities and these groups are being closely monitored by Israel, which has shown itself open to an agreement with Damascus following pressure from Trump—while making it clear that it demands a demilitarized buffer zone on the border—and which has taken advantage of the situation to destroy much of Syria’s military capabilities and occupy various territories.
However, Al Shara’s actions and statements have also made him the target of criticism from extremist and hardline factions, who believe that his rapprochement with the West, including his decision to join the US-led international coalition against the Islamic State, distances him from the objectives he declared when he was a jihadist fighter, and they are therefore trying to discredit him, resulting in considerable internal pressure.
THE HUMANITARIAN SITUATION
On the humanitarian front, Mohamad al Nsur, head of the Middle East and North Africa section of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, noted this week that “things are improving,” although the country still faces challenges in reconstruction efforts and reviving the economy.
The UN Refugee Agency has warned that 16 million people need humanitarian assistance in the country, where conditions “remain extremely fragile,” with “housing, water systems, schools, and health facilities damaged or overwhelmed,” and the conditions of many refugees in neighboring countries are not free from these problems either. Along these lines, the non-governmental organization Save the Children has stated that the Syrian population returning home is struggling to rebuild their lives amidst destroyed infrastructure, limited access to schools and healthcare, and a collapsing economy, with more than 1.2 million refugees and 1.9 million internally displaced people returning to their places of origin since the fall of the Assad regime.
The NGO highlighted that jobs are scarce and that 90 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, in the midst of a severe economic crisis. In this regard, Rasha Muhrez, Save the Children’s director in Syria, emphasized that “many” people want to return home “but they find devastation and a lack of basic services.”
“We must ensure that people can return safely and that children have access to education, healthcare, and protection. Children must be at the heart of Syria’s reconstruction,” she said, before lamenting the impact of cuts in international aid funding at a time when “investment is crucial.” “We urge the international community not to forget Syria. The crisis is far from over,” she concluded.
