The independence of the United States central bank, the monetary pride of our economic system, is being eroded. This is not due to an insidious plot, but rather due to decisions that compromise its credibility and raise alarm bells in global markets. This institutional deterioration threatens to destabilize both the US economy and the delicate international financial balance.
Systemic Risk and Deterioration of Trust
President Trump’s recent attempts to force changes in the structure of the Federal Reserve, including the dismissal or reduction of the terms of key members like Governor Lisa Cook, represent a direct attack on monetary autonomy. Analysts at institutions like the European Central Bank warn that “this principle is seriously undermined”; if confirmed, it would have global effects on financial markets and the real economy.
This perception generates uncertainty. Investors, used to technical criteria and predictability, now see a Fed under direct political pressure, which could precipitate greater risk aversion and realign capital flows toward alternative currencies or safe-haven assets, such as gold.
The Fed as a Political Lever
The intention to impose ideological quotas on the central bank and push for artificially low interest rates could induce an inflationary spiral. Some projections estimate that the loss of monetary independence could raise cumulative inflation by more than 10 percentage points by 2028 (EBC Financial Group). In this scenario, Treasury bonds—the global benchmark—would reflect overpricing and volatility, discouraging investment in US assets.
A Dangerous Precedent with Global Reach
Since the 1980s, the Federal Reserve has been a model of monetary autonomy, inspiring governments and central banks around the world. Its weakening would jeopardize this confidence. The risk is that we would begin to see economic decisions guided more by electoral circumstances than by technical analysis, opening the door to populist policies with unpredictable effects.
If the Fed ceases to be an arbiter immune to partisan pressures, its ability to manage economic cycles, stabilize prices, and respond to financial crises is diluted. This weakens the dollar, the lingua franca of international trade, and undermines market stability.
In short, the Fed’s independence is not a doctrinal luxury: it is a defense against volatility, a guarantee of confidence, and an essential pillar of the global monetary system. Every time this barrier weakens, we all expose ourselves to higher prices, lower investment, and a more fragile financial system.
The historical lesson is clear: without monetary autonomy, this very stability we value so much could be the first casualty.
