Debate over South Korea’s nuclear weapons development grows amid Trump’s disparate messages.
Kim Jong Un maintains his strategy and seeks to pressure the parties for concessions.
North and South Korea mark this Wednesday 75 years since the start of their great unfinished war: a conflict that divided a nation and remains unresolved to this day, awaiting the parties to finally reach an agreement to sign a peace treaty that would serve as the final touch to the conflict.
With a ceasefire stemming from the armistice agreed upon in 1953, the parties have since maintained a kind of technical truce that has led them to coexist for more than seven decades in a wave of accusations, tensions, and challenges, which rise and fall at the expense of geopolitical changes.
The division of the Korean Peninsula dates back to 1945, when the United States and the former Soviet Union used the 38th parallel as a line to divide power. The two countries hoped to divide territory and influence in the region, but war broke out just five years later.
In June 1950, North Korean troops invaded South Korea, sparking a war that involved more than twenty countries and involved the deployment of nearly two million troops. The Soviet Union and China supported Pyongyang, while Seoul enjoyed the backing of the United States, which remains South Korea’s main ally to this day.
The lengthy peace negotiations that began three years later led to the signing of an armistice agreement supported by the United States. The 38th parallel was reestablished as a reference point, continuing to serve as the de facto border between the two countries despite the tensions.
It wasn’t until 2018, almost seven decades later, that then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un finally proposed signing a peace treaty, albeit with an essential issue at the heart of it: the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
The parties saw the feasibility of making progress in this direction, ending North Korea’s arms race and reducing US influence in the region, as well as the continued deployment of its forces and the implementation of military maneuvers.
DISTRUST AND IDEOLOGICAL DIFFERENCES
Despite these attempts at rapprochement, the two Koreas have still not reached an agreement that truly satisfies both parties, which has perpetuated a climate of deep ideological and political differences, as well as systematic mistrust.
The demilitarized zone (DMZ) separating the two territories remains one of the most heavily militarized borders in the world, and incidents in this area, which appear to have recently decreased, are increasing tensions and raising fears of a new war.
The liaison office that Kim and Moon agreed to establish in 2018 to exchange constant communications collapsed two years later, when North Korea expressed its frustration with alleged provocations from across the border, particularly the sending of propaganda by defector groups.
The greatest push for dialogue disintegrated during the 2019 Hanoi summit, which ended without an agreement between Kim and Trump when the latter refused to accept the partial disarmament proposed by Pyongyang. Subsequently, the arrival of the ousted Yoon Suk Yeol as president led to a hardline policy toward the North.
A NEW APPROACH
However, following Donald Trump’s return to the White House and Lee Jae Myung’s arrival as South Korean president in early June, many hope that the parties will once again put the possibility of ending the conflict on the table.
Victor D. Cha, political scientist and chair of the Department of Foreign Policy at Georgetown University’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, recently explained that the economy is now the South Korean government’s top priority given its “complete export orientation.”
“South Korea is very export-oriented, and one of its main markets is the United States, so the US president’s tariff policies could lead to internal changes,” Cha said during an event organized by CIDOB, Casa Asia, and Ático de los Libros.
“If we add to this concerns about China, which is hindering access to minerals for technology manufacturing, South Korea is at risk vis-à-vis both the United States and China,” he maintained.
Thus, Lee’s arrival as president will test the exceptional nature of relations between South Korea and the United States amid rising tensions and potential changes in the relationship between Washington and its traditional partners.
This could lead to a reduction in tensions with North Korea, despite the fact that the possibility of nuclear weapons is once again dominating public debate. “There are specific issues facing the United States that ultimately become closely linked to Korea’s exceptional nature with Washington due to the security agreement,” explained Inés Arco, a CIDOB researcher specializing in East Asia and Chinese politics, in a statement to Europa Press.
She clarified that although there is a bias in South Korean policy regarding “how to manage North Korean affairs,” the issue has now gained prominence given that Trump has “once again shown signs of wanting to meet with Kim,” who maintains his position and seeks to pressure Seoul and Washington to obtain concessions and the lifting of sanctions.
However, Arco warned that the Trump administration’s “mixed messages” “could impact domestic debates on issues such as defense.” “That’s why the debate over nuclear weapons reached its peak after Trump was elected,” he stated.
NUCLEAR WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT
It is precisely this apparent doubt about the continued presence of the US contingent deployed in South Korean territory that has led a large part of the Asian country’s population to advocate for developing nuclear weapons to confront the threat from North Korea—an idea that was on the verge of materialization in the 1970s.
Although Seoul lacks such weapons, it is under the protection of the US “nuclear umbrella,” implying that the US has committed to using its arsenal in the event of a nuclear attack or military threat.
This dependence, in addition to North Korea’s increased ballistic and nuclear testing and its recent military rapprochement with Russia, is what has led to greater public support for the development of this type of weaponry—a measure that Lee seems to rule out for the moment.
In the event of an attack, many fear for their families and loved ones, whom they have not seen for years. The Korean War, which deepened the division between the two countries, continues to affect thousands of families, some of whom have only been able to reunite decades later thanks to the reunifications that began in 2000.
To this day, both countries continue to claim sovereignty over the entire peninsula, and in their respective constitutions, they independently consider themselves the sole legitimate government of all of Korea, which makes mutual recognition difficult and leaves the possibility of truly ending this conflict up in the air.
