Wars in the Middle East, Ukraine or the Sahel are advancing with no apparent solution in sight in 2025
Peace efforts in Colombia or the fight against crime in Ecuador mark the situation in South America
The year 2024 is coming to an end and leaves behind numerous open conflicts destined to continue throughout 2025, whether politically, such as the situation in Georgia or Pakistan, or by means of weapons, such as the wars in the Middle East, Sudan or in the Sahel region, the Russian invasion of Ukraine or the armed conflict in Colombia, where the Executive is working to consolidate the so-called ‘total peace’.
In the Middle East, Hamas’ attacks against Israel in October 2023 unleashed a wave of reactions from countries and organizations allied to the Palestinians and the most forceful Israeli response against all of them. Throughout 2024, the Israeli Army has managed to hit Hamas and Hezbollah hard in Lebanon, is now directing its attacks at the Houthis in Yemen and has seen a jihadist offensive overthrow Bashar al Assad in Syria.
Looking ahead to the new year, it is to be hoped that Israel will end up resolving the situation in the Gaza Strip, either with some political agreement or with the occupation of the enclave, while in Lebanon the ceasefire agreement will be finalized at the end of January. However, the Israeli authorities have always made it clear that the driving force behind all these groups is Iran, the ultimate enemy pointed out by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine is advancing in an apparently unstoppable way into its third year, even more so after the failure of Hungarian attempts to reach a sort of Christmas truce accompanied by a large exchange of prisoners. Russia seems to be consolidating its positions in eastern Ukraine, although fighting continues in the Kursk region following the Ukrainian offensive in August.
Another area with long-standing armed conflicts is the Sahel region, where the loss of influence by France in favour of Russia unleashed a succession of political changes, while the intensification of attacks by the affiliates of the Islamic State and Al Qaeda has left hundreds dead in Burkina Faso, Mali or Niger, where governments have reacted with repression against civilians.
Also in Africa, the war in Sudan has established itself this year as one of the main international conflicts due especially to the high number of victims. The country has been mired in a civil war since April 2023, when hostilities broke out over the integration of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) into the Armed Forces.
This conflict has left more than 5,000 dead and 1.1 million refugees, according to United Nations data, and has also blown up the transition process opened after the overthrow in 2019 of Omar Hassan al Bashir, already damaged after the coup d’état of October 2021, in which the Prime Minister of Unity, Abdalá Hamdok, was overthrown.
POLITICAL TENSIONS IN GEORGIA OR PAKISTAN
Beyond these armed clashes, other countries are facing political tensions, in some cases arising from the war in Ukraine or Russian influence. This is the case in Georgia, where a Kremlin-friendly government has put the brakes on the process of joining the European Union in the face of criticism from the opposition as a whole and from a large part of the population.
This decision was added to the widespread discontent of the citizens, who months ago had already taken to the streets of the main streets of the country, including in the capital, Tbilisi, to protest against a law on foreign agents due to its apparent Russian influence, as well as against new legislation against the LGBT community.
The security forces have arrested dozens of people in the demonstrations against the Government, which have been supported by President Salomé Zurabishvili, of French origin and who, despite ascending to the Presidency with the help of the ruling Georgian Dream, has emerged throughout her mandate as the main voice of the opposition.
Thus, while the Government is relying on the results of the last legislative elections, it must also face the discontent of the citizens and increasing pressure from the international community. The United States and some European countries have already approved sanctions against the Georgian government leadership.
On the other hand, Pakistan held national and regional elections in 2024, marked by accusations of fraud and manipulation in an attempt to keep former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party out of power, although independent MPs who are close to the former president won a record number of seats.
After this, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, considered the party preferred by the military, rose to power, thus unleashing a crisis of disaffection and also tensions between the citizens and the political class. Former Prime Minister Khan, imprisoned for several reasons, has also tried to stir up the population and organize marches to demand his release.
In addition to the political and citizen tensions, there is also the unstable security situation in a country where separatism in Baluchistan and the armed group Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), known as the Pakistani Taliban, have carried out attacks. Looking ahead to next year, it is to be expected that the government and the military will expand their power in order to combat these sources of instability.
Another of the most turbulent scenarios in recent times in Taiwan, an island in the North Pacific off the coast of China that has become one of the main sources of tension between the United States and the ‘Asian giant’. For Beijing, the island is part of its territory and it assures that it will defend its sovereignty in an “unwavering” manner, although Washington has left in writing its commitment to safeguard Taiwanese security.
Rare is the month in which the Taiwanese authorities do not report naval or air incursions by Chinese forces into its territorial space; and in fact a few months ago Beijing launched the largest training program around the island, even simulating the blockade of ports and assault. The trip of the president of Taiwan, William Lai, to the South Pacific has intensified tensions with Beijing.
CONFLICTS IN SOUTH AMERICA
Finally, another region with increasing conflicts is South America, especially in Colombia and Ecuador, where both governments are trying to deal with the security crisis. In the case of Colombia, President Gustavo Petro is trying to consolidate his total peace plan, a proposal with which he ran in the elections and which is still under negotiation.
The Colombian authorities have entered into dialogue with organized armed groups, splits from the extinct Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) such as the Central General Staff; the National Liberation Army (ELN), with which a ceasefire was reached; or the Gulf Clan.
In Ecuador, the security crisis finally exploded at the beginning of 2024, when armed groups even broke into the studios of a television network while it was broadcasting live. The government of Daniel Noboa responded with a state of emergency that was extended for months and was approved again at the end of the year.
Discontent with Noboa, the deterioration of security and the continued widespread blackouts due to the lack of energy supply make Ecuador a country in tension and which will hold presidential elections during the first few months of the year.
