Trump and Harris will spend the end of the month trying to convince an electorate as diverse as it is fundamental to their aspirations
The vice president of the United States and Democratic Party candidate for the White House, Kamala Harris, will visit Michigan and Georgia this coming week in the second week of her tour of the so-called “swing states” of the country with the intention of once and for all reducing the slight gap that still separates her from her great rival, former president Donald Trump, in places that have already become essential for the November elections: the states where, less than a month from the elections, there is no clear winner.
The states considered to be in dispute are, as of today, Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10), a total of 103 electoral votes that represent almost a fifth of the 538 in play and without a magic formula that allows them all to be won thanks to the variety of the electorate.
Kamala Harris has an advantage over Trump at the national level, but what counts in these elections are the electoral votes provided by each state, arranged in a census calculation. The winner of the election needs 270 of these votes and right now it does not matter that Harris obtains 49.2 to Trump’s 47.9 percent in the polls.
If he consolidates the current polls and wins all the battleground states, Trump will have won the election by 312 electoral votes to Harris’s 226, more than enough to return to office and even surpass Biden’s victory four years ago (306 votes in favor) against the tycoon himself (232 votes). Hence the final push by Harris, who over the next few days will be accompanied by former President Barack Obama to encourage the electorate.
“THE BLUE WALL”
Three states matter above all others: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the so-called “blue wall”, traditional Democratic strongholds whose loss has meant a Republican victory in the presidential elections.
Losing just one of them would greatly hinder Harris’ chances, who is still 1.2 points behind Trump in Michigan; 0.2 in Wisconsin and 0.7 points in Pennsylvania, according to the local average of polls collected by RealClearPolitics. The tycoon won all three in 2016, although he ended up losing them in the 2020 revalidation against Joe Biden.
Harris and Trump face particular challenges in each state, which include gaining the trust of different communities — the Gaza war will be a very important factor in the large Muslim population in the three large cities (Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia) and winning specific states such as Michigan, the birthplace of the automobile, requires serious negotiations with its unions.
Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, is considered the big prize and that is why Trump has dedicated special emphasis to the state this past weekend, accompanied by Tesla founder and, for a few days now, guest at his rallies, Elon Musk. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin depend heavily on manufacturing and other manual jobs, areas that Trump has tried to shore up through tariff proposals and tax breaks.
